Positioned between the towering Himalayas in the north and the expansive Bay of Bengal in the south, Bangladesh resides on one of the globe’s most extensive and densely inhabited deltas, where the Jamuna, Padma, and Meghna rivers intersect. Despite its relatively modest contribution to global emissions, Bangladesh stands among the nations most impacted by severe climate conditions. Over the period from 2000 to 2019, Bangladesh encountered 185 instances of extreme weather events, ranking it as the seventh most vulnerable country to the effects of climate change.
Bangladesh grapples with climate change-induced natural disasters stemming from its geographical positioning and flat, low-lying terrain. Elevated population density, widespread poverty, and dependence on climate-sensitive sectors for vital resources such as water and food security, notably encompassing water resources, agriculture, fisheries, and livestock, amplify its susceptibility to climate variations. Climate-driven calamities including tropical cyclones, storm surges, monsoon floods, flash floods, droughts, sea-level rise, salinity intrusion, and ocean acidification, compound pressures on the nation’s otherwise robust development path, hindering socioeconomic advancement and human welfare.
In June 2023, temperatures soared beyond 40°C during an extended heatwave period. Coastal communities have been battered by tropical cyclones, resulting in an average annual economic loss of 0.7% of the gross domestic product (GDP). The frequency of devastating floods is on the rise, exacerbated by climate change, which doubled the likelihood of pre-monsoon rains destroying the summer paddy crop similar to that of in 2017. Looking ahead, even under the most optimistic scenario of very low emissions (SSP1-2.6 or RCP2.6), Bangladesh faces the prospect of an additional 0.8°C of warming by the end of the century compared to the period from 1981 to 2010. Furthermore, heavier rainfall could elevate peak river flow by 16% relative to the period from 1971 to 2000, escalating the vulnerability to flooding events.
In addition to extreme weather events, the sea level in Bangladesh is escalating at a rate of 3.8 to 5.8 mm annually, surpassing the global average. This rapid rise in sea level is compelling inhabitants to abandon their dwellings and has expanded the area affected by saline soils by 27% since the 1970s, posing significant challenges to agriculture and livelihoods. Projections indicate that in southern Bangladesh alone, anticipated sea level elevation could displace approximately 0.9 million residents by 2050, while heightened salinity levels may disrupt fisheries, disproportionately impacting coastal communities reliant on fish as a vital protein source. Furthermore, sea level rise amplifies the peril posed by tropical cyclones. In the event of a cyclone akin to Cyclone Amphan occurring in 2100, the number of individuals exposed to storm surges would surge by 50–80% compared to its landfall in 2020. The only exception to this trend would be if global temperature rise were restricted to 2°C, in which case exposure levels would remain unchanged.
Furthermore, the adequacy of existing defenses is poised to encounter formidable obstacles in adapting to forthcoming transformations. Under the most extreme emissions scenario (RCP8.5 or SSP5-8.5), projections suggest that sea level rise in Bangladesh will surpass the capacity of current coastal defenses and embankments, potentially submerging 18% of the coastal area. During Cyclone Amphan, coastal embankments suffered severe damage and were breached, facilitating a storm surge that inundated inland areas by up to 15 kilometers, displacing 500,000 families from their homes.
References
Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change. (2022). National Adaptation Plan of Bangladesh (2023‐2050).
Huq, S., Khan, M., Islam, A.S. & Mirza, A. B. Climate change impacts in Bangladesh: What climate change means for a country and its people. (2024)
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